Wander Thoughts

The draft plan is expected to be submitted at the Munich Security Conference next week, shortly before the conflict reaches its three-year milestone.

It is anticipated that US President Donald Trump's administration will unveil a long-awaited plan to bring an end to Russia's ongoing conflict in Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference in Germany next week, according to individuals who are well-informed about the situation.

The blueprint would be presented to allies by Keith Kellogg, Trump's special representative on Ukraine and Russia issues, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity. They did not clarify how detailed the discussions were expected to be or what format they would follow.

A proposal will be presented at the February 14-16 conference in the Bavarian city, to be announced a week before the three-year mark of Russia's war. Kellogg and others have made subtle indications in recent weeks that align with the idea of "peace through strength" advocated by Trump's allies.

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Elements include potentially freezing the conflict and leaving territory occupied by Russian forces in a state of stagnation, while providing Ukraine with guarantees to ensure that Moscow cannot engage in future aggression.

Later this month, Kellogg is expected to make his first trip to Kiev and other parts of the European Union, according to individuals familiar with the matter. In Ukraine, he is expected to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky.

In the meantime, the Ukrainian leader is planning to visit several countries in the Gulf region following the Munich conference, according to what people said.

Spokespeople for the Ukrainian president's office refused to comment. General Kellogg will continue to engage in efforts to secure assistance from allies to help fulfill President Trump's promise to end the war, according to National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes.

Kellogg has indicated that the US would like to see elections held in Ukraine following a ceasefire, while Trump has implied that access to essential minerals as a quid pro quo for US support could be part of a settlement.

The US president has also threatened Moscow with severe economic penalties if it does not participate in negotiations.

Ukraine's main security concern is getting a guarantee of safety from NATO, which Kyiv admits is unlikely in the near future. Zelensky recently stated that he is open to elections once the war ends and martial law is lifted.

The chief advisor to the Ukrainian president, Andriy Yermak, recently engaged in a conversation with Michael Waltz, the top US national security adviser. Meanwhile, the official spokesperson for the Russian president noted that there has been an increase in contacts between US and Russian agencies.

Both Putin and Zelensky said that their initial reluctance to communicate with each other has eased ahead of Trump's plan. In an interview late on Tuesday with television presenter Piers Morgan, Zelensky reiterated his willingness to speak with Putin to bring an end to the conflict, under the observation of Ukraine's allies.

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Poland's backing of Ukraine is starting to evaporate as the conflict with Russia marks its fourth anniversary this month.

According to a recent survey, opinions in Poland about providing military aid to Ukraine are increasingly unfavorable, with one in every three people now disapproving, up from a previous quarter.

Although Poland has been a crucial ally from the outset of the conflict—supplying military assistance and aiding Ukrainian refugees—its level of support is gradually decreasing.

A study was conducted by the ARC Market and Opinion institute at the behest of the Mieroszewski Center, an organization dedicated to fostering relationships between Warsaw and Eastern European communities. A survey of 1,012 individuals aged 18 to 65 was undertaken.

The percentage of Poles in favor of sending military aid to Ukraine has decreased from 55% to 49%.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has emphasized his readiness to engage in direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, provided that this be "the only format that could bring peace to the citizens of Ukraine and prevent loss of life."

In an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan, Zelenskyy stated, "If that is the only way we can achieve peace and save our citizens from loss of life, we would definitely accept it."

He later mentioned that any such talks would involve four parties. In an earlier interview over the weekend, he stated that he "would like to see the United States of America, Ukraine, and the Russians at the negotiating table... And, to be honest, a European Union voice should also be there."

Such a conversation could only take place after a contact between the two leaders.

Referring to Vladimir Putin, Zelenskyy said, "I will not be kind to him, I consider him an enemy. Honestly, I believe he also considers me his enemy."

In a recent interview on Tuesday, the Ukrainian president acknowledged that his country is likely to relinquish some of the territory that Russia has occupied since its invasion commenced in February 2022.

In a scathing rebuke of Ukraine's supporters in the war, President Zelenskyy expressed discontent by saying, "Unfortunately, the backing provided by our allies is insufficient to completely drive Putin out of our territories."

Despite the ongoing conflict, membership in NATO offers Ukraine its optimal opportunity to stabilize the situation and provide long-standing defense guarantees for the country.

During an interview, Zelenskyy estimated the total number of Ukraine's war casualties to be approximately 45,100 dead and 390,000 injured. He also stated that Russia had sustained around 350,000 fatalities and 700,000 wounded.

US President Donald Trump, whose future actions will be crucial in determining the outcome of the war, stated during a press conference on Monday that the US is "in contact with the Russians, we're in contact with the Ukrainian leadership." He did not provide further information.

Last week, Putin stated that Russia would be "open" to peace talks, but instead blamed others for not making an effort to resolve legal issues. He also referred to Zelenskyy as "not legitimate" to lead any potential talks, and stated that he himself would not engage in direct conversation with Zelenskyy, opting to instead send suitable representatives to participate in negotiations.